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Modelling Failure Rate of Automobile Crankshafts based on Distance Travelled and Age

Author : B. Kareem and Yakubu A. Jimoh

Pages : 210-217
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Automobile crankshaft failure, apart from poor maintenance culture, is caused by age and distance travelled. These attributes which caused crankshaft failure were investigated using expert opinion in the selected crankshaft maintenance shops in Akure, Nigeria. Information/data on failure rate and failure consequence thresholds were obtained to serve as decision rule on the basis at which optimal reconditioning process, replacement and interchangeability system of the crankshaft components were established based on failure frequency (rate) (R1) and consequence (β1). Experimental failure data from the experts were modelled using multivariate linear regression approach. Computer algorithm was developed for the software package, using Microsoft Visual C# computer language. The model and its software were tested to determine their level of performance. The results generated were categorized into six scenarios from which MC230 crankshaft gave the best result in term of lowest failure rate. Crankshaft TC generated the best income rate (failure consequence) for the workshop. The significant difference test result between the actual and predicted failure rate and consequence showed that both are similarly in good agreement. The model and the emerging computer program will be veritable tools in predicting crankshafts’ failure for prompt maintenance attention.

Keywords: Automobile Crankshafts, Modelling, Failure Rate, Distance Travel, Vehicular Age

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